- Fantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
- Member of Pro Football Writers of America
- Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
- 2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings
Each week of the 2021 NFL season, I will review every individual player prop available via our partners at Caesars Sportsbook and pick out my favorite plays. This week’s best bets are listed below, in no particular order.
For thoughts on player-prop strategy, check out our recent staff roundtable on the topic.
Season results: 18-16 ($110.44 net profit*)
*Assuming $100 bet on all recommended props
Mac Jones over 0.5 INTs (-145), over 37.5 pass attempts (-125), under 1.5 pass TDs (-125)
We hit on both Jones props last week, so why not go for the trifecta in Week 4? Jones is at home against a terrific Buccaneers team this week, and while all eyes are on Tom Brady, the betting edge comes from Jones’ player props. Jones has attempted at least 30 pass attempts in all three of his NFL games, including at least 38 in two of the three. He’s a good bet to reach 38 again this week, considering New England is an underdog (which suggests a pass-friendly game script) and because teams don’t rush against Tampa Bay’s dominant run defense (the Buccaneers have faced a league-high 144 pass attempts this season, including 38-plus in all three games). Jones’ heavy pass volume makes an interception more likely (he had three in Week 3 after zero during Weeks 1-2), and the Buccaneers are currently fourth in the league with four INTs (this same defense ranked seventh with 15 INTs in 2020). Jones has yet to clear one passing TD in a single game this season, and playcalling is a main culprit here, because while Jones ranks seventh in pass attempts, New England’s expected passing TD total (2.8) is seventh lowest in the league.
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